The AI PC wave: what the numbers say

Think of the coming years as a hardware refresh meets an AI software era. The market for personal computers is shifting from traditional compute to devices that also run AI workloads locally. The headline numbers come from Gartner and rival researchers who track shipments, pricing, and the ecosystem changes that will shape adoption. In Gartner’s latest forecast, AI PCs are expected to reach about 77.8 million units in 2025, representing roughly 31% of all PC shipments. The pace isn’t just a blip: the forecast calls for a jump to 143 million AI-enabled PCs in 2026, or about 55% of the total market, before AI-capable machines become the standard in the years that follow. Canalys adds a slightly more optimistic near term, with around 48 million AI PCs expected this year (roughly 18% of the market) and over 100 million in 2025 (about 40%). IDC’s view sits in the middle, estimating AI-PC penetration climbing toward two-thirds by 2028.

• These aren’t just tallies; they reflect a broader shift toward on-device AI processing. Today’s AI PCs bring neural processing units (NPUs) from firms like Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm into the core design. The idea is simple: do the AI heavy lifting where you’re using the PC, not in some faraway cloud. The payoff is tangible—faster responses, better privacy since data stays closer to the user, and a foundation for more capable, context-aware software

Why the shift makes sense

• Real-time capabilities: Imagine real-time language translation baked into the OS and apps, or content creation tools that understand your style and adapt on the fly. In practical terms, you might be editing a video and have an AI assistant that instantly suggests color corrections, or a document that auto-summarizes notes as you type.
• Personalization at scale: As software becomes smarter about who you are, your PC can adjust without you having to tweak dozens of settings. That kind of refinement relies on running models on-device, where data doesn’t need to travel to a server.
• Premium hardware cycle: Canalys projects a 10%–15% price premium for AI-capable machines relative to non-AI models. That premium isn’t just padding; it’s the capex that funds better silicon, faster storage, and more capable software.

The numbers’ implications for business and consumers

• Market value: If shipments grow as forecast, the total value of PC shipments could rise from an estimated $225 billion in 2024 to above $270 billion by 2028, reflecting both higher unit sales and stronger price points.
• Windows end-of-life as a catalyst: With Windows 10 support ending in late 2025, a wave of commercial refreshes could accelerate the move to AI-enabled devices, even as buyers weigh the price premium and the total cost of ownership.
• Architecture matters: The AI PC era isn’t a one-size-fits-all shift. The business segment is expected to keep leaning on x86 PCs running Windows, but Arm-based processors are poised to gain traction in consumer devices as software ecosystem compatibility improves.

The tech and software ecosystem around AI PCs

• Local AI, cloud-optional: The central idea is to keep AI workloads on the device to reduce latency, boost privacy, and enable offline capabilities. That requires more powerful NPUs and smarter software frameworks that can run efficiently on a range of devices.
• Software pivots: Gartner predicts that by 2026, around 40% of software vendors will prioritize on-PC AI capabilities, up from just 2% in 2024. That shift will drive the development of smaller, more capable language models that can run locally rather than pinging the cloud.
• Use-case expansion: From real-time translation to smarter productivity tools, the on-device AI thesis is about enabling personalized experiences that feel fast and responsive, even when network access is limited.

Challenges on the road to mass adoption

• Economic headwinds: The market still faces uncertainty and tariff risks that could temper consumer and enterprise spending on new hardware. Analysts emphasize that macro conditions will influence how quickly buyers upgrade.
• Clear value propositions: A core question remains—what exactly is the benefit of an AI PC for the average user? If the use cases aren’t obvious, buyers may opt for more traditional devices, delaying the upgrade cycle.
• Price sensitivity: The premium for AI-capable machines is real. Until the price gap narrows or the benefits become undeniable, some buyers will stay on the sidelines.

A changing hardware and software ecosystem

• Processor competition: The market is eyeing a shift in processor architectures. The business side is likely to keep favoring x86 with Windows for years, but Arm is expected to capture more consumer share as software compatibility improves.
• A future with more capable software: The software industry appears poised to invest meaningfully in on-PC AI capabilities, leading to the rise of compact language models that can operate efficiently on consumer devices.

Bottom line

The AI PC trend isn’t a gimmick. It’s a multi-year evolution that blends hardware refresh cycles with smarter software that can run where you work. If forecasts hold, we’ll see AI-enabled PCs become the norm in a few years, reshaping expectations for privacy, speed, and personalized computing. The true test will be whether the technology makes a demonstrable difference in everyday tasks and whether the price premium becomes a sensible trade-off for users.